Korean Elections Blog

Exit polls are generally of excellent quality in Korea so these won't be too far off the actual results. By-elections The pre-election polls were generally pretty much spot on if  the exit poll is right. In the 12 special elections the Democat is winning by a country mile in 10 of them so it is pretty safe to say the Democrats have held the 4 seats they were defending and have gained 6 seats tonight.  They may add a seventh in Jechon-Dayang. It was also forecast by the opinion polls to be a fairly comfortable win for the Democrats but the Democrats lead by just 2% according to the exit poll which is within the exit poll's margin of error. This is a pretty safe seat for the Liberty Korea party normally- they got 58% of the vote here in the 2016 national assembly elections so even a narrow defeat here for the Democrats is pretty impressive.  In their ultra-safe seat of Gimcheon the Liberty Korea party seems to have held off a challenge from an independent. Pre-...

Here is a summary for the latest poll from every National Assembly By-election.  Democrat holds Incheon Namdong A is set to be retained by the Democrats- they have a 31% lead over the Liberty Korea candidate. Cheonan C is also going to be a Democrat hold with their candidate currently having a 35% lead. Seoul Songpa B the Democrat has a 20% lead over the Liberty Korea candidate. This is a swing district which was won at the last election by a Democrat who defected to the Righteous Future party. Gimhae B- the latest polls show the Democtats retaining the seat by 35%. Democrat Gains In Seoul Nowon C the Democrat has a 35% lead over the Righteous Future candidate. This would be a gain for the Democrats from the Rigteous Future party. Cheonan A is set to be a Democrat gain with their candidate leading the Liberty Korea canididate by 28%. Busan Haeundae B latest poll has 19% lead for the Democrat over the Liberty Korea candidate (though ‘Don’t Know ...

Moon Jae in's approval ratings have shown a miniscule drop across the board. Gallup has him on 75% approval (literally ‘doing well) and 16%  saying he is doing badly as President. This is pretty much identical to every weeks figures in May. 48% of people who approve of Moon gave a reason related to the North Korean summits as their main reason for their approval (61% if you assume ‘foreign affairs’ refers to North Korea).     Real Meter has him at 72% approval, 22% disapproval Research View has him at 71%-25% approval They also give a good hint as to why Moon Jae-in’s ratings have been largely unaffected by the cancellation of the US-North Korea summit (though it now looks like this will go ahead). 41% of respondents blame the US for the cancellation, 31% blame North Korea with just 13% respondents blaming South Korea. Party scores Gallup shows very stable polling figures. The Democratic party are on 53%, Liberty Korea on 11% and Righ...

The Righteous Future party's candidate for mayor of Seoul Ahn Cheol-so Righteous Future is a fairly recent merger of two political parties. The People’s party was founded in 2016 after tech entrepreneur Ahn Cheol-so lost a power struggle for control of the Democratic party with Moon Jae-in. They  did surprisingly well in the National Assembly elections securing 25 seats (out of 253) in the First Past the Post section of the election and actually coming 2nd in the proportional section of the election. They presented themselves as anti-establishment and as a distinct alternative to the traditional two party politics in Korea  with some people interpreting this as them being to the left of the Democratic party though others viewing them as a centrist choice. Ahn ran for President in 2017 on an explicitly centerist campaign and almost drew level with Moon Jae-in in the opinion polls a month before the election. However many of his supporters drifted back to th...

Jamsil baseball stadium  in the north of the constituency. Picture  By Cyberdoomslayer. About the district: Songpa is in Seoul. It is one of the richest areas in all of Korea right next to Gangnam . Songpa B is mostly the western part of Songpa, stretching from the Jamsil Baseball stadium in the north to the Garak market in the South.   The further north you can go in constituency the richer it becomes and the more likely residents are to vote for the Liberty Korea party. It is also a swing district (bear in mind Grand National and New Frontier are both previous names of Liberty Korea)' 2004 Grand National49.5 Our Open Party 43.5 New Millennium Democratic7.0 (the Our Open Party and the New Millennium Democratic Party had only split shortly before the election and recombined shortly afterwards, good work there guys….) 2008 Grand National 61.6 Democrat 35.7 2012 New Frontier 50% Democratic 46% 2016 Democratic - 44%* ...

Jangsan Falls, in the constituency.  About the constituency: Haeundae is a beach resort that is part of Korea’s 2 nd biggest city Busan.   However the B constituency represents the areas in the north of the area away from the beaches on the east bank of the Suyeong River.     The constituencies boundaries were significantly altered prior to the 2016 election so only the election results from that year are relevant: New Frontier Party (predecessor of Liberty Korea): 49.7% Democratic Party: 37.6% Independent: 13.5% Like most of South-east Korea the area has been a stronghold for ancestors of the Liberty Korea Party. The most recent win for the Democratic party came in a by-election in 1998. However Democrat Moon Jae-in actually got more votes in the constituency in the 2017 Korean Presidential Election than Liberty Korea’s Hong Jun-pyo: Democratic Party: 37.6% Liberty Korea: 32.6% People’s (predecessor of Righteous Future): 17.6% Righte...

About the constituency: The constituency is in the far North-East of the city of Seoul- This is an Assembly Constiuency map of Seoul with Nowon C highlighted in red: Nowon is the densest populated area of Seoul though is bordered to the north by relatively mountainous areas. It is a fairly standard residential suburb of Seoul.   Past results: The district has been highly unpredictable in the past returning candidates from all over the political spectrum in the past. However, one trend is that the Liberty Korea party and its predecessor parties have been in gradual decline here for a decade. The neighbouring Nowon A and Nowon B districts are both held by the Democratic party Previous Results by % (winners % in bold): Democrat* Liberty Korea* Minjung* Righteous Future* Justice party* other 2004 general election 45.2* 37.0 6.8 Did not run Did not run 11.0* 2008 gener...