Korea’s right on the rise? Nope


This piece annoyed me because it was such a load of nonsense.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/south-koreas-right-wing-is-rising-and-could-scuttle-trumps-peace-with-kim-jong-un?ref=scroll

He wandered round Daejeon and found some people who want to kill Kim Jeong-Un so now the ‘right’ (applying western terms to a country with very different politics is something I generally avoid but that’s what Kirk does) is in the ascendancy apparently. Never mind that in party preference they are 10-15% behind in the polls or that the talks with North Korea remain overwhelmingly popular.  In Daejeon Liberty Korea are polling around 25%*- around where they have been polling for the last year. In the June 2018 Mayoral election, the Democrat got 56.4% of the vote beating Liberty Korea’s Park Seong-Hyo who got 32.2%. Liberty Korea are not on the rise in Daejeon or anywhere else. 

Of course the Liberty Party may come back. But it hasn't happened yet and no sign it is happening anytime soon. 

Publications that want to be taken seriously would not accept entirely anecdote driven accounts as representative of their own countries politics. They should hold their foreign correspondents to the same standard. 

 *these are crossbreaks which shouldn't be taken too seriously (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/collegeofjournalism/entries/1657a2d3-3173-304a-a909-9ae228b3629b see number 3) but even on this dubious metric there's no actual facts to back up Kirk's anecdotes! 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

New Opponent- same results

Image
New leader of Liberty Korea Hwang Kyo-Ahn has not changed their fortunes.  Nothing much has changed in Korean opinion polling in the last few months. In the opinion polls Moon still has a approval rating of around 50%. His Democratic Party continues to lead in the polls although by 10-15 points rather than 20 point leads that were common at the start of the year.  What is interesting about this is the news has not been good for Moon in the last few months. Moon's main weakness has always been his failure to deliver on his (unrealistic) pledge to boost Korean growth. In fact Korea's economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2019. Meanwhile the North Korean peace process has stalled- missile tests, attacks on Moon from Pyongyang and the Americans seizing North Korean ships suggest if anything the process is going backwards. Yet Moon still remains popular compared to past Korean presidents at this stage in their term while his party is on track for a big win in the 202
Read more

Nowon C by-election

Image
About the constituency: The constituency is in the far North-East of the city of Seoul- This is an Assembly Constiuency map of Seoul with Nowon C highlighted in red: Nowon is the densest populated area of Seoul though is bordered to the north by relatively mountainous areas. It is a fairly standard residential suburb of Seoul.   Past results: The district has been highly unpredictable in the past returning candidates from all over the political spectrum in the past. However, one trend is that the Liberty Korea party and its predecessor parties have been in gradual decline here for a decade. The neighbouring Nowon A and Nowon B districts are both held by the Democratic party Previous Results by % (winners % in bold): Democrat* Liberty Korea* Minjung* Righteous Future* Justice party* other 2004 general election 45.2* 37.0 6.8 Did not run Did not run 11.0* 2008 general e
Read more

Songpa B by-election

Image
Jamsil baseball stadium  in the north of the constituency. Picture  By Cyberdoomslayer. About the district: Songpa is in Seoul. It is one of the richest areas in all of Korea right next to Gangnam . Songpa B is mostly the western part of Songpa, stretching from the Jamsil Baseball stadium in the north to the Garak market in the South.   The further north you can go in constituency the richer it becomes and the more likely residents are to vote for the Liberty Korea party. It is also a swing district (bear in mind Grand National and New Frontier are both previous names of Liberty Korea)' 2004 Grand National49.5 Our Open Party 43.5 New Millennium Democratic7.0 (the Our Open Party and the New Millennium Democratic Party had only split shortly before the election and recombined shortly afterwards, good work there guys….) 2008 Grand National 61.6 Democrat 35.7 2012 New Frontier 50% Democratic 46% 2016 Democratic - 44%* Independent (w
Read more