Korean Elections Blog

Exit polls are generally of excellent quality in Korea so these won't be too far off the actual results. By-elections The pre-election polls were generally pretty much spot on if  the exit poll is right. In the 12 special elections the Democat is winning by a country mile in 10 of them so it is pretty safe to say the Democrats have held the 4 seats they were defending and have gained 6 seats tonight.  They may add a seventh in Jechon-Dayang. It was also forecast by the opinion polls to be a fairly comfortable win for the Democrats but the Democrats lead by just 2% according to the exit poll which is within the exit poll's margin of error. This is a pretty safe seat for the Liberty Korea party normally- they got 58% of the vote here in the 2016 national assembly elections so even a narrow defeat here for the Democrats is pretty impressive.  In their ultra-safe seat of Gimcheon the Liberty Korea party seems to have held off a challenge from an independent. Pre-electi

Here is a summary for the latest poll from every National Assembly By-election.  Democrat holds Incheon Namdong A is set to be retained by the Democrats- they have a 31% lead over the Liberty Korea candidate. Cheonan C is also going to be a Democrat hold with their candidate currently having a 35% lead. Seoul Songpa B the Democrat has a 20% lead over the Liberty Korea candidate. This is a swing district which was won at the last election by a Democrat who defected to the Righteous Future party. Gimhae B- the latest polls show the Democtats retaining the seat by 35%. Democrat Gains In Seoul Nowon C the Democrat has a 35% lead over the Righteous Future candidate. This would be a gain for the Democrats from the Rigteous Future party. Cheonan A is set to be a Democrat gain with their candidate leading the Liberty Korea canididate by 28%. Busan Haeundae B latest poll has 19% lead for the Democrat over the Liberty Korea candidate (though ‘Don’t Know is a

Moon Jae in's approval ratings have shown a miniscule drop across the board. Gallup has him on 75% approval (literally ‘doing well) and 16%  saying he is doing badly as President. This is pretty much identical to every weeks figures in May. 48% of people who approve of Moon gave a reason related to the North Korean summits as their main reason for their approval (61% if you assume ‘foreign affairs’ refers to North Korea).     Real Meter has him at 72% approval, 22% disapproval Research View has him at 71%-25% approval They also give a good hint as to why Moon Jae-in’s ratings have been largely unaffected by the cancellation of the US-North Korea summit (though it now looks like this will go ahead). 41% of respondents blame the US for the cancellation, 31% blame North Korea with just 13% respondents blaming South Korea. Party scores Gallup shows very stable polling figures. The Democratic party are on 53%, Liberty Korea on 11% and Righteous Future on

The Righteous Future party's candidate for mayor of Seoul Ahn Cheol-so Righteous Future is a fairly recent merger of two political parties. The People’s party was founded in 2016 after tech entrepreneur Ahn Cheol-so lost a power struggle for control of the Democratic party with Moon Jae-in. They  did surprisingly well in the National Assembly elections securing 25 seats (out of 253) in the First Past the Post section of the election and actually coming 2nd in the proportional section of the election. They presented themselves as anti-establishment and as a distinct alternative to the traditional two party politics in Korea  with some people interpreting this as them being to the left of the Democratic party though others viewing them as a centrist choice. Ahn ran for President in 2017 on an explicitly centerist campaign and almost drew level with Moon Jae-in in the opinion polls a month before the election. However many of his supporters drifted back to the Liberty Korea