Is the future righteous? Probably not. Including Seoul mayor election and North Jeolla opinion polls.


The Righteous Future party's candidate for mayor of Seoul Ahn Cheol-so

Righteous Future is a fairly recent merger of two political parties.

The People’s party was founded in 2016 after tech entrepreneur Ahn Cheol-so lost a power struggle for control of the Democratic party with Moon Jae-in. They  did surprisingly well in the National Assembly elections securing 25 seats (out of 253) in the First Past the Post section of the election and actually coming 2nd in the proportional section of the election. They presented themselves as anti-establishment and as a distinct alternative to the traditional two party politics in Korea  with some people interpreting this as them being to the left of the Democratic party though others viewing them as a centrist choice. Ahn ran for President in 2017 on an explicitly centerist campaign and almost drew level with Moon Jae-in in the opinion polls a month before the election. However many of his supporters drifted back to the Liberty Korea party and he ultimately finished third. The party merged with the Righteous party though this caused a split with more left-wing members forming the Democracy and Peace party.  

The Righteous party split from the Liberty Korea party (then known as New Frontier) during the attempts to impeach the President Park Geun-hye. After her impeachment most of their National Assembly members returned to the re-named Liberty Korea party. However a minority soldiered on and ran Yoo Seung-min for President. He ran a campaign seemingly aimed at supporters of Liberty Korea party who did not like some of the Liberty Korea candidate Hong Jun-pyo’s more extreme rhetoric. He got 7% of the vote.

The marquee race for the Righteous Future party this time is the Seoul Mayor election where their biggest name, former Presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-Soo is looking to unseat Democrat Park Won-Soon (who initially won election as in independent). It is not going well. He has never been close in any of the polls and according to the latest one from Hanguk research he has slipped into third. Park leads on 54% the Liberty Korea candidate Kim Moon-soo is on 15% and Ahn is on 13%.
As recently as 2016 the People’s Party (now Righteous Future party) topped the polls by 10% in legislative election in North Jeolla as well as in the other south western provinces of South Jeolla and Gwangju.  Jeonnam an. While they slipped to second in the south west at the Presidential election it was still their strongest region by some distance. If the Righteous Future party could do well anywhere without Ahn it is here. And judging by an MBC poll in North Jeolla they are not doing well.

They are not running a candidate in the two biggest races. The governors race poll shows Sung Ha-Jin is set to be re-elected with 60% of the vote. His main challenger is Im Jeong-yeob of the Democracy and Peace party (a split from the Righteous Future party) on 11%. Don’t know is on 24%.
The mayoral  election in Jeonju which shows incumbent Kim Sung-su cruising to relection with 52% of the vote. His nearest challenger is Lee Hyeon-ung of the Democracy and Peace party on 16%. 28% of voters are still undecided.

In the province's 2nd biggest city of Gunsan the Righteous Future Party do have a candidate. Before their merger the People’s party and the Righteous party candidates secured 27% of the vote here in last year’s Presidential election.  However, their candidate for Mayor is polling at just 7%.
The Democrat Gang Im-jun looks set for re-election on 41%. An independent is on 16% and  the Peace and Democracy party candidate is on 10%.

The Righteous Future Party are an irrelevance in every other race in the province. The Democratic candidate has large leads in every race with either an independent or the Peace and Democracy party in a fairly distant 2nd. The two exceptions are the province’s third city Iksan where the Democratic candidate is effectively neck and neck with the Peace and Democracy party candidate and the scenic Muju country in the north of the province where The Democratic candidate trails to an independent.

Righteous Future's national polling also remains dire.

If Righteous Future’s results are as bad as the polls suggest then it wouldn’t be surprising to see senior figures re-defecting back to the Democrats or the Liberty Korea party which would probably be the beginning of the end for the party.

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