New Opponent- same results

New leader of Liberty Korea Hwang Kyo-Ahn has not changed their fortunes. 

Nothing much has changed in Korean opinion polling in the last few months. In the opinion polls Moon still has a approval rating of around 50%. His Democratic Party continues to lead in the polls although by 10-15 points rather than 20 point leads that were common at the start of the year. 

What is interesting about this is the news has not been good for Moon in the last few months. Moon's main weakness has always been his failure to deliver on his (unrealistic) pledge to boost Korean growth. In fact Korea's economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2019. Meanwhile the North Korean peace process has stalled- missile tests, attacks on Moon from Pyongyang and the Americans seizing North Korean ships suggest if anything the process is going backwards. Yet Moon still remains popular compared to past Korean presidents at this stage in their term while his party is on track for a big win in the 2020 legislative elections. Why?

The answer  probably lies with the opposition. The most consequential event in terms of Korean politics since my last post was the Liberty Korea Party leadership election. The two main candidates were:

Hwang Kyo-Ahn served as Prime Minister for Park Guen-Hye, was loyal until bitter end (even when she tried to fire him) and interim President once she was impeached.

Oh Se-Hoon was twice elected mayor of Seoul until resigning after losing a referendum on means testing school lunches in 2011 (he was in favour of means testing). H He left the Liberty Korea Party to the Righteous Future party in 2016 and came back in 2018. 

The electoral system is a bit odd- delegates to the party conference  get 70% of the votes. The rest is given to an opinion poll of the public. 

The less conservative Oh Se Hoon won the public opinion poll overwhelmingly- but this was not enough to overcome Hwang Kyo-Ahn's massive lead among the delegates so Hwang won. While he is a massive change in style from the abrasive, incendiary Hong Jun-Pyo he was just as loyal to the incredibly unpopular Park Guen-Hye and holds similar views on most issues. In the 3 months since he became leader the opinion polls have not moved and it is difficult to see what voters he can attract to Liberty Korea who weren't voting for them already. After being crushed in a Presidential and then local elections Liberty Korea's rank and file don't seem much interested in doing anything that will stop them going to three record defeats in a row at next year's parliamentary elections.