Pre-election poll round up


Here is a summary for the latest poll from every National Assembly By-election. 

Democrat holds

Incheon Namdong A is set to be retained by the Democrats- they have a 31% lead over the Liberty Korea candidate.

Cheonan C is also going to be a Democrat hold with their candidate currently having a 35% lead.

Seoul Songpa B the Democrat has a 20% lead over the Liberty Korea candidate. This is a swing district which was won at the last election by a Democrat who defected to the Righteous Future party.

Gimhae B- the latest polls show the Democtats retaining the seat by 35%.

Democrat Gains

In Seoul Nowon C the Democrat has a 35% lead over the Righteous Future candidate. This would be a gain for the Democrats from the Rigteous Future party.

Cheonan A is set to be a Democrat gain with their candidate leading the Liberty Korea canididate by 28%.

Busan Haeundae B latest poll has 19% lead for the Democrat over the Liberty Korea candidate (though ‘Don’t Know is actually getting the most support here!) so yet another gain this time from Liberty Korea.

Gwangju Seo A. Previously held by the Righteous Future party the Democrats lead here by 53%-4% (not a typo four %) over the Democracy and Peace party.

Ulsan North is also going to the Democrats with their candidate holding a 13% lead over the Liberty Korea party. This seat was previously held by the Minjung party.

Yeongam, Muan and Sinan was previously held by the Democracy and Peace party but the Democrat has a 32% lead here.

Jecheon-Danyang. Previously held by the Free Korea party the Democrat has a 13% lead here.

The one exception is Gimcheon. This is one of the safest Liberty Korea party seats in the country- they secured 64% of the vote here in 2016 and 83% in 2012. While Liberty  Korea candidate Hyon Jun-Pyo got 24% of the vote nationally he got 48% in Gimcheon. But the Liberty Korea party still might not win. While the Democrats have not fielded a canidate Independent Chae Dae-won is on 29% leading the Liberty Korea candidate Song On-sok who is on 22%.

There has not been much change in the governors races. In Jeju the independent has widened his lead. Daegu is probably too close to call. North Gyeongsong will be staying with the Liberty Korea party. The other 15 provinces will be electing a Democrat.

Moon Jae-in’s approval rating remain great as does his parties position in general ‘which party do you prefer’ polls.

Might the polls be wrong?

Of course! Korean polling track record is pretty good- about as good as in the US (so a lot better than in the UK) so we are just left with guessing quite how massive the Democrats landslide will be.
Guessing polling errors is a bit of a mugs game- especially when the election is likely to be low turnout. But if I had to guess I would say the polls are probably under-rating the Democrats because the news cycle since polling stopped has been the Trump/Kim summit where the words ‘dotard’ and ‘rocket man’ didn’t feature at all. We’ll soon find out.

Bit pushed for time this week so didn’t do it properly but most the polls I reference are in one of these two youtube vids:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh4I1pFUZeo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpkG8O5iqII



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