Busan Haendae B by-election



Jangsan Falls, in the constituency. 

About the constituency: Haeundae is a beach resort that is part of Korea’s 2nd biggest city Busan.  However the B constituency represents the areas in the north of the area away from the beaches on the east bank of the Suyeong River.   The constituencies boundaries were significantly altered prior to the 2016 election so only the election results from that year are relevant:

New Frontier Party (predecessor of Liberty Korea): 49.7%
Democratic Party: 37.6%
Independent: 13.5%

Like most of South-east Korea the area has been a stronghold for ancestors of the Liberty Korea Party. The most recent win for the Democratic party came in a by-election in 1998. However Democrat Moon Jae-in actually got more votes in the constituency in the 2017 Korean Presidential Election than Liberty Korea’s Hong Jun-pyo:

Democratic Party: 37.6%
Liberty Korea: 32.6%
People’s (predecessor of Righteous Future): 17.6%
Righteous (predecessor of Righteous Future): 7.1
Justice: 4.7%

Why is there a by-election?

Previous member of the assembly Park has been convicted of receiving around $50,000 bribes in connection to the building of 3 skyscraper in Haeundae. In return for the money he lobbied for infrastructure projects that would be helpful to the skyscrapers developement. He had been a major figure in local politics since the early 1990s.

Meet the candidates:


Yoon Joon-ho, Democratic Party

Yoon has a Phd in Education from Beijing Science and Technology University. Yoon Joon-ho owns and runs a number of Hagwons (private schools that kids to go to after there day at state run schools) in the Busan area. In 2014 he came 2nd in attempt to become mayor of Haeundae and was runner up in the Haeundae B district in the 2016 assembly elections.





Kim Dae-sik, Free Korea 

He studied at Otani University in Japan and has worked as a Japanese language professor in various universities in Korea. He served in various roles in Lee Myung-bak administration. He also once ran unsuccessfully for governor of South Jeolla province.


Lee Hae-seong, Righteous Future party

Has served in various roles in the Democratic party and lost several elections in Busan for running for the party. He has since changed parties.

There is also Gu Chang-gwan of the left wing Minjung Party,  Han Geun-hyeong  of the right wing Park Geun-hye loyalist Korean Patriots party and an independent Lee-Jun-Wu.  

Who is going to win?

There are no polls of the district itself however the district is about average in its political leanings for Busan and there have been several polls of Busan city as a whole.

company
date
Democrat
Liberty Korea
Korea Research Centre
May 3rd
55.0
19.4
Real Meter
May 5th
53.3
23.7
Hanguk Research
May 8th
54.9
19.1
Real Meter
May 14th
48.4
23.0
Real Meter
May 16th
49.5
26.5

If you squint you can see a gradual closing of the gap between the major parties but it is still massive. Polls for the mayoral election also show the Democratic candidate with a huge lead. Clearly there may be local candidate effects but all the candidates seem pretty similar to me- respectable middle aged men who have been trying to get a political career going for a while- so I’d say this is again going to be a win for the Democratic Party.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

New Opponent- same results

Image
New leader of Liberty Korea Hwang Kyo-Ahn has not changed their fortunes.  Nothing much has changed in Korean opinion polling in the last few months. In the opinion polls Moon still has a approval rating of around 50%. His Democratic Party continues to lead in the polls although by 10-15 points rather than 20 point leads that were common at the start of the year.  What is interesting about this is the news has not been good for Moon in the last few months. Moon's main weakness has always been his failure to deliver on his (unrealistic) pledge to boost Korean growth. In fact Korea's economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2019. Meanwhile the North Korean peace process has stalled- missile tests, attacks on Moon from Pyongyang and the Americans seizing North Korean ships suggest if anything the process is going backwards. Yet Moon still remains popular compared to past Korean presidents at this stage in their term while his party is on track for a big win in the 202
Read more

Songpa B by-election

Image
Jamsil baseball stadium  in the north of the constituency. Picture  By Cyberdoomslayer. About the district: Songpa is in Seoul. It is one of the richest areas in all of Korea right next to Gangnam . Songpa B is mostly the western part of Songpa, stretching from the Jamsil Baseball stadium in the north to the Garak market in the South.   The further north you can go in constituency the richer it becomes and the more likely residents are to vote for the Liberty Korea party. It is also a swing district (bear in mind Grand National and New Frontier are both previous names of Liberty Korea)' 2004 Grand National49.5 Our Open Party 43.5 New Millennium Democratic7.0 (the Our Open Party and the New Millennium Democratic Party had only split shortly before the election and recombined shortly afterwards, good work there guys….) 2008 Grand National 61.6 Democrat 35.7 2012 New Frontier 50% Democratic 46% 2016 Democratic - 44%* Independent (w
Read more

Nowon C by-election

Image
About the constituency: The constituency is in the far North-East of the city of Seoul- This is an Assembly Constiuency map of Seoul with Nowon C highlighted in red: Nowon is the densest populated area of Seoul though is bordered to the north by relatively mountainous areas. It is a fairly standard residential suburb of Seoul.   Past results: The district has been highly unpredictable in the past returning candidates from all over the political spectrum in the past. However, one trend is that the Liberty Korea party and its predecessor parties have been in gradual decline here for a decade. The neighbouring Nowon A and Nowon B districts are both held by the Democratic party Previous Results by % (winners % in bold): Democrat* Liberty Korea* Minjung* Righteous Future* Justice party* other 2004 general election 45.2* 37.0 6.8 Did not run Did not run 11.0* 2008 general e
Read more