How are the Korean local elections going to go?


The general political atmosphere in South Korea is very favourable for Moon and his Democratic Party. His latest approval ratings are as follows:

Company
Date
Doing Well %
Doing badly %
Gallup Korea
16-17 May
76
14
RS View
17 May
72
23
Real Meter
14-16 May
74.5%
20.9%

The latest political party polls look like this:

Company
Date
Democratic
Liberty Korea
Righteous Future
Justice Party
Democracy and Peace
Other/ don’t know/ undecided
Gallup Meter
16-17 May
51
11
6
4
*
27
RS View
17 May
57
21
6
5
1
10
Real Meter
14-16 May
53.8
19.6
5.7
5.5
3.7
11.7


Gallup shows a very high number of don’t knows on the political party question. However 54% of their don’t knows say that Moon Jae-in is doing well as President so it seems unlikely an opposition surge will come from there. While there is a fair bit of variation the Democratic Party are obviously on track for a big victory on June 13.

To get a measure of how popular the Democratic Party and Moon Jae-in are I’ve also picked out results from Daegu/ Gyeongbuk- the region whre both Moon-Jae in and the Democratic Party are least popular.*

Gallup had 102 respondents from Daegu/Gyeongbuk. Moon has an approval rating of 65% and a disapproval rating of just 19%. They also recorded the Democratic Party leading the Liberty Korea party by 36% to 19%. Don’t know was on 34%.

RS view had Moon’s approval rating in the region at 57% and disapproval at 33%. The Liberty Korea Party lead the Democratic Party by 39% to 38%.

Real Meter does not have a crossbreak for Presidential approval but does for party choice showing the Democratic Party have a 3.5% lead (38.7% to 35.2%) over the Liberty Korea Party.

The last local elections in 2014 didn’t go particularly well for the Democratic Party. The party won 5 out of 9 governors races, 4 out of 8 mayoral races in major cities and just 7 out of 18 provincial assembly elections. They will almost certainly do better this time, judging from the national polls it wouldn’t be that big a surprise if they won every National Assembly by-elections, governors race, every major mayoral race and every provincial assembly though hopefully I’ll get some time to look at some of these in detail later on.

*Please bear in mind these are crossbreaks, not Daegu/Gyeonbuk specific polls. Read this if you want to know why you shouldn’t put too much faith in Crossbreaks. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5717 . So take all this with a big pinch of salt.


 Here is where I got the polls from: 

http://www.gallup.co.kr/gallupdb/reportContent.asp?seqNo=927
http://rsview.kr/pdboard/bbs/board.php?bo_table=data&wr_id=733&page=0&sca=&sfl=&stx=&sst=&sod=&spt=0&page=0
http://www.realmeter.net/2018/05/%EB%A6%AC%EC%96%BC%EB%AF%B8%ED%84%B0-5%EC%9B%94-3%EC%A3%BC%EC%B0%A8-%EC%A3%BC%EC%A4%91%EB%8F%99%ED%96%A5-2%EC%A3%BC%EC%A7%B8-%EC%A1%B0%EC%A0%95%EC%84%B8-%E6%96%87-%EB%8C%80%ED%86%B5%EB%A0%B9/

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