How are the Korean local elections going to go?
The general political atmosphere in South Korea is very
favourable for Moon and his Democratic Party. His latest approval ratings are
as follows:
Company
|
Date
|
Doing Well %
|
Doing badly %
|
Gallup Korea
|
16-17 May
|
76
|
14
|
RS View
|
17 May
|
72
|
23
|
Real Meter
|
14-16 May
|
74.5%
|
20.9%
|
Company
|
Date
|
Democratic
|
Liberty Korea
|
Righteous Future
|
Justice Party
|
Democracy and Peace
|
Other/ don’t know/ undecided
|
Gallup Meter
|
16-17 May
|
51
|
11
|
6
|
4
|
*
|
27
|
RS View
|
17 May
|
57
|
21
|
6
|
5
|
1
|
10
|
Real Meter
|
14-16 May
|
53.8
|
19.6
|
5.7
|
5.5
|
3.7
|
11.7
|
Gallup shows a very high number of don’t knows on the political
party question. However 54% of their don’t knows say that Moon Jae-in is doing
well as President so it seems unlikely an opposition surge will come from
there. While there is a fair bit of variation the Democratic Party are obviously
on track for a big victory on June 13.
To get a measure of how popular the Democratic Party and
Moon Jae-in are I’ve also picked out results from Daegu/ Gyeongbuk- the region
whre both Moon-Jae in and the Democratic Party are least popular.*
Gallup had 102 respondents from Daegu/Gyeongbuk. Moon has an
approval rating of 65% and a disapproval rating of just 19%. They also recorded
the Democratic Party leading the Liberty Korea party by 36% to 19%. Don’t know was
on 34%.
RS view had Moon’s approval rating in the region at 57% and disapproval
at 33%. The Liberty Korea Party lead the Democratic Party by 39% to 38%.
Real Meter does not have a crossbreak for Presidential
approval but does for party choice showing the Democratic Party have a 3.5% lead (38.7% to 35.2%) over the Liberty Korea Party.
The last local elections in 2014 didn’t go particularly well
for the Democratic Party. The party won 5 out of 9 governors races, 4 out of 8 mayoral
races in major cities and just 7 out of 18 provincial assembly elections. They
will almost certainly do better this time, judging from the national polls it
wouldn’t be that big a surprise if they won every National Assembly by-elections,
governors race, every major mayoral race and every provincial assembly though hopefully
I’ll get some time to look at some of these in detail later on.
*Please bear in mind these are crossbreaks, not Daegu/Gyeonbuk specific polls. Read this if you want to know why you shouldn’t put too much
faith in Crossbreaks. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5717
. So take all this with a big pinch of salt.
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